top of page
Search

Why a Russian Invasion of Ukraine is Unlikely

  • Writer: Amer Loubani
    Amer Loubani
  • Feb 7, 2022
  • 4 min read


According to a BBC report, Russia has prepared 70% of the necessary military build-up needed for a Ukraine invasion. More than 100,000 Russian troops wait at the border, while on the other side America has sent troops to Poland and plans to send 3,000 more to various locations across eastern Europe. Tensions between Ukraine and Russia have been on and off since 2014, when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea (originally part of Ukraine) and conflict broke out in eastern Ukraine between pro-Russian rebels and the Ukrainian armed forces. As a result of the latter incident, the Russia-Ukraine border remains in a constantly unstable state, with sporadic fighting and an active count of 14,000 dead since 2014. Various agreements aimed at ending the conflict, including the Minsk agreement, have failed to implement complete peace in the region. This brings us to the present day where Russia has seemingly grown impatient with what it perceives as blatant western laziness with regards to moving threats away from Russia’s western borders. In this blog I’ll explain why Russia may not actually follow through on a Ukraine invasion, and what it stands to lose if it does.


Interconnected Interests


Back during the cold war, East and West were so economically and culturally separated that it made conflict easy and convenient. The continent today is not quite the same. Russia, although not always smoothly, remains heavily involved in European business. Whether through the gas it provides to almost every nation in the EU, or through the interests many nations share with Russia when dealing with threats, Russia is an important player. Many democratic European nations, on issues from Belarus to Turkey and Libya, depend on Russia as an ally to facilitate communication and agreements or prevent escalations that may cause friction in the region. Such is Russia’s perceived importance regardless of its reckless actions, Angela Merkel (Recently departed German Chancellor) made a point during her reign of ensuring communication lines to Moscow remained open – making constant trips as well as phone calls to discuss politics with Vladimir Putin, the Russian president.


If they go to war with Ukraine, Russia would likely lose all of this influence overnight. Its trade with the west would also take a massive hit given the comprehensive sanctions package being prepared in case of invasion. Russia would take a hit on gas if Germany, for example, decided to cancel the recently completed “Nord Stream II” gas pipeline that allows Russia to pump gas directly to Germany and onwards to other paying customers across Europe. It would also take massive hits in the tech and banking sectors if the US and friends decided to cut Russia off from the global payment system SWIFT (from which Russia receives much of its oil and gas payments) and bar major tech companies from exporting essential chips and circuits necessary for building anything from smartphones to aviation components. Simply put, war is not a smart move for Putin unless there are massive perceived gains. Gains however, are in the eyes of the beholder.


Family Ties


Russia and Ukraine share deep and historic ties despite the border that now separates them. In the regions close to the border, Ukrainians and Russians share family relationships and speak the common language with many of their neighbours. What this means in my view is that drawing clear lines in the sand by the western painting of Ukraine as a firm US ally against Russia will always be perceived angrily by Russia and its leaders. Putin’s views are clear, he longs for the days when Ukraine and Russia were one (during the existence of the soviet union and before), and he sees the breakup of the nations as nothing short of a catastrophe. What this ultimately results in is the Russian political perception that every Ukrainian interaction that pulls it closer to the west is an insult to everything Moscow stands for. Russia’s people are closely aligned to Putin on this issue too, because of the family relationships I’ve described above. While they may not aggressively advocate for war, they definitely wouldn’t be ecstatic at further Ukrainian integration away from their shared history.


NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) is an alliance created in 1949, containing friendly western European countries and set up to protect those allies in Europe from Russian invasion. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Europe has not really been under threat of Russian conquest, so the continued existence of NATO and its expansion to possibly include Ukraine in future leads Russia to believe America is not really interested in lasting peace on the continent. On the one hand, it is quite plain to see why Russia would be unhappy by this organisation’s continued existence – but on the other Russia does not share the ideals of their western counterparts, not by a long shot. This means that if there is to be continued political animosity between the two sides, America believes NATO serves an essential purpose to ensure Russia never reaches the level of comfort where it could begin acting more aggressively than it currently does.


Ukraine is a massive example of how Russia hasn’t entirely ceased aggressive action in the region, so Europe remains balanced between two opposing powers in the east and west until a lasting peace is found. Ultimately, Putin knows his anti-American threats serve the purpose of continuing to boost his image at home. Biden made it clear when he took office that China would be his priority over all else, and I believe Putin has interpreted that as America dismissing Russia as a major power. Until he believes he’s fully being taken seriously, which is already happening given the amount of western effort being dedicated to lowering the temperature in Moscow, his threats will continue. Whether they turn into anything more remains to be seen.


Author: My name is Amer, I'm a Computer Science with Business graduate currently working in tech consulting. My thoughts in this blog are based on my opinions regarding the outcome of tensions in Eastern Europe, rather than concrete assumptions based on fact. Feel free to reach out to me via LinkedIn (on the about page) if you have any questions.


Sources:

 
 
 

Comments

Post: Blog2 Post
bottom of page