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Boris Johnson Tears up the Conservative Party (And Democracy)

  • Writer: Amer Loubani
    Amer Loubani
  • Jul 7, 2022
  • 4 min read

It started with coordinated resignations by Sajid Javid (health minister) and Rishi Sunak (chancellor). It has led to 42 resignations and counting since Tuesday in another awful week for Boris Johnson. Allegations he had heard claims of inappropriate conduct against cabinet minister Chris Pincher and seemingly did nothing appears to have been the final straw for many. Realistically it shouldn’t have been – the PM has been handling a scandal a week since the extent of downing St. rule-breaking during the pandemic was revealed. He appears to be living on borrowed time, but clings onto power - even sacking senior Tory loyalist Michael Gove for daring to suggest he resigns. Let’s discuss whether he will stay much longer – and the different ways this extraordinary situation could play out.


He’s already survived one no-confidence vote, by a vote of 211 to 148 – losing the support of dozens of his own MP’s in the process. Current rules say he cannot face another vote for 12 months, but the 1922 committee (a powerful committee of backbench MPs) is close to changing the rules, allowing another vote against his leadership as early as next week. The committee itself votes in a new executive on Monday, before it will reportedly make its move against the PM (INews). As the balance of MP’s in his own party with no support for him tips into the red zone, another vote of this kind may be fatal for Johnson. The Conservative party risks tearing itself apart if he survives yet another vote, and loses more senior Tory members of parliament who form the backbone of any successful Conservative leadership. Boris Johnson is already running out of loyal MP’s to replace the gushing losses he has suffered in key positions in the last 72 hours, it seems the wave that takes his premiership underwater is very close.


“The job of a prime minister in difficult circumstances when you have been handed a colossal mandate is to keep going and that's what I'm going to do.” – the statement Mr Johnson made in parliament today. Unpicking this statement reveals a few ways this could play out. The PM believes the 14 million who voted the conservatives into power 3 years ago give him the validation required to see out his term in office. This is a self-defeating notion, the UK votes parties into power who are then responsible for governing the nation, not a single candidate in a presidential-style race. Staying on will leave massive lasting damage. As an election looms in 2025, if Johnson clings onto power and further tears up the Conservative party, he will leave them in no shape to fight an election whatsoever.


This opens the door for Keir Starmer – himself awaiting the outcome of an investigation into potential lockdown rule-breaking (he says he will resign if fined) – to take Labour into government 5 years after he was elected Labour leader in 2020. A growing majority of Conservative MP’s want to stem the bleeding as soon as possible, so they can unite around a new leader before the next election. Boris Johnson himself threatened to ask the queen to dissolve parliament yesterday if the party keeps pursuing his removal, triggering a general election that would likely be a catastrophe for the party in its current form (it seems he’d rather take the party down with him). How this plays out may well decide the survival of a party that has been a dominant force in UK politics since David Cameron took office in 2010.


The fact Mr Johnson celebrated the narrow outcome of a no-confidence vote in which 41% of his own party voted against him is signature Johnson. He seems to believe himself infallible and it’s easy to tell why he thinks that way given the charges of wrongdoing he has survived so far. The difference this week is that the party in power seems to have gained the will to sacrifice their hold on office to get rid of him. Labour waits in the wings, their leader under threat of being forced to step aside given the promises he made in service of taking the high ground and doing the right thing. One thing is for certain, in times of a cost of living crisis which includes spiking food and fuel prices, as well as the most significant armed conflict Europe has seen since the second world war, strong and effective leadership in the UK government is at least months away.


As I post this the resignations from the government have risen to 52, and it is confirmed the PM will step down shortly. Looks like time is up.


Author: My name is Amer, I'm a Computer Science with Business graduate currently working in tech consulting. My thoughts in this blog are based on my opinions regarding the regulation of the online world, and any info about the bill itself comes from sources listed below. Feel free to reach out to me via LinkedIn (on the about page) if you have any questions.


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2 Comments

nikhil.gajjar
Jul 07, 2022

Fantastic read and well timed post!

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Amer Loubani
Amer Loubani
Jul 07, 2022
Replying to

Thank you!!

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